Big Sky perspective

I believe in the Big Sky Theory when it comes to flying.

From Wikipedia: “The Big Sky Theory is that two randomly flying bodies are very unlikely to collide, as the three-dimensional space is so large relative to the bodies.”

However, “It does not apply when aircraft are flying along specific narrow routes, such as an airport traffic pattern or jet airway.”

Personally, my definition of the Big Sky Theory adds time as a fourth dimension. Two aircraft must occupy the same three-dimensional space at the same time for a collision to occur.

I’m writing this on Nov. 8, 2022, 311 days into the year.

Just one week earlier, we published the FAA’s announcement about the updated Advisory Circular regarding midair collisions.

“The number of mid-air collisions in recent months has led the FAA to update its Advisory Circular regarding the pilot’s role in collision avoidance,” is how that story begins.

Like many General Aviation News readers, I’ve also read about the tragic midair collisions so far in 2022. 

But life is hectic and I didn’t recall the specific number of mid-air collisions that had occurred so far in 2022, so I pulled up the National Transportation Safety Board website and perform a CAROL search.

My search parameters were:

• Event Date on or after 1/1/2022
• Country is United States
• Event type is Accident
• General Aviation is True

That query produced 1,009 results.

Just for the heck of it, I removed the General Aviation is True parameter. The number of accidents increased to 1,132. 

I downloaded the GA is True results as a CSV (comma-separated file) and opened the file in Apple Numbers. Since the data doesn’t specifically include mid-air collision, I filtered the N# column using a comma. If there is only one N#, there is no comma in the column. If there is more than one N#, a comma exists.

That filter shows 11 accidents. Of note, the data that does not segregate by GA reports 14 collisions.

Accidents by month:

• January: 1
• February: 1 
• April : 1 
• June: 1
• July: 3
• August: 3
• September: 1

Back in October, the Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association’s Air Safety Institute released the 32nd edition of the Joseph T. Nall Report, which included general aviation accident data up through 2020. From the general overview of the Nall Report: “Overall, flight activity fell from 25.5 million hours in 2019 to 22.4 million hours in 2020.”

Who knows what 2022’s estimated GA flight hours will be, but I guess a safe bet would be north of 20 million hours.

My point? The sky is huge. Collectively, we fly millions of hours a year out of 20,000 airports. So far in 2022, those millions of flight hours at thousands of airports have produced 11 GA accidents categorized as a collision.

Yes, I am aware that the Big Sky Theory, as defined by Wikipedia, does not apply in “an airport traffic pattern.” But maybe it should.

Yes, traffic patterns can be chaotic and unruly, but that is likely the exception, not the rule. 

How can I make such a statement?

Easy. Assuming 20 million flight hours in 2022, that equals 54,794 per day, on average. Many of the 20,000 airports will have zero operations on any given day, while some of the larger airports will have hundreds a day, every day. 

The last reported collision happened over Longmont, Colorado, on Sept. 17, 2022.

Every day since then, at 20,000 airports during nearly 55,000 flight hours, no collision has occurred. Were there a few close calls? I’d guess yes. And yet, no collision.

Any accident is sad. Especially those that results in death.

But the sky is big and beckons.

Be safe.