The journey from SUN ‘n FUN to Oshkosh

My moment of truth is fast approaching. Will I succeed or fail to predict the future?

I have been repeating my forecast that the FAA will announce a draft of its newest regulation, called an NPRM (Notice of Proposed Rule Making) at EAA’s big summer celebration of flight, EAA AirVenture Oshkosh.

I’m not betting the farm, though. I think it’s a fairly safe prediction.

To win an increase in its budget a few years back, the FAA agreed to complete a new regulation by Dec. 31, 2023. That new reg is widely known as Mosaic. Its full name is Modernization of Special Airworthiness Certification.

Because the FAA has said the agency needs 16 months to read every comment and adjust the final regulation language accordingly, seeing the future is simple math. Go back in time 16 months from the end-of-year deadline in 2023 and you end up at EAA AirVenture Oshkosh 2022. We will see if the agency meets its goal.

Among Light Sport Aircraft (LSA) enthusiasts and those following Mosaic and hoping for an enlargement of the LSA aircraft description, it may come as a surprise to learn that Mosaic is as much about multicopters, eVTOLs, and drones (call them what you will) as LSA.

In fact, it is multicopters that are driving the deadline. Congress ordered this new sector be integrated into the National Airspace.

LSA, warbirds, homebuilts, and other Special Airworthiness Certificate holders are all included in this sweeping rule. (For clarification, aircraft built by Cessna and Cirrus are issued Standard Airworthiness Certificates.)