“Let us be the solution to your New Year’s Resolution” was printed on the backside of a postcard I received in the mail. Huh? What resolution?
After reading the other side of the postcard, apparently my 2017 resolution is to be an underpaid professional pilot.
For kicks I clicked through to FlyCommutAir.com to see what my career goals really are. First up…the United Career Path Program.
“If you want to fly for United Airlines, CommutAir has a way to help you get there.”
If hired into the United Career Path Program (CPP) I’ll be on a “clear reliable path to a United Airlines flight deck.”Oh boy.
My Specific Goals
Apparently I desire to be a CommutAir First Officer that will earn $36 per flight hour with a 75-hour monthly guarantee. Being a pilot, I had to pull out my calculator to figure out I desire to earn at least $32,400 over 12 months after that sweet $15,000 signing bonus. Good thing my goals aren’t too lofty.
Even better, another goal of mine is to be based out of Newark, New Jersey (EWR) or Dulles, Virginia (IAD). Can’t wait to see what the crash pads look like.
Econ 101
I know why CommutAir sent me a postcard. I have a pilot certificate and a heartbeat. Oh, and there is a much-discussed shortage of pilots.
But whenever I think about the “pilot shortage,”I think about my freshman Economics 101 class.
As I see it, there isn’t a shortage of pilots. After all, the population of pilots in the United States is near 600,000. That’s a lot of pilots.
But…the number of pilots (supply) willing to fly a Bombardier Q200 from EWR or IAD for $32,400 a year is likely much, MUCH smaller. Thus the postcard.
Using a simple Supply vs. Demand chart, start in the lower left of the supply line. As the price (compensation) increases along the Y axis, the supply of pilots interested in flying a Q200 will increase. Simple.
Of course, as the cost of labor increases, so will ticket prices. If ticket prices go up too much, demand for tickets will decrease. Thus decreasing the need for more pilots.
Finding equilibrium (while also profitable) is the goal. The theory is rather simple to understand. Putting that theory into practice, not so simple.
Staying Put
While I’m flattered (heavy sarcasm) to receive a “Let us be the solution” postcard from CommutAir, it doesn’t feel like opportunity to me. It smells like desperation.
Granted, I’m a 46 year old with a great wife and three kids. If I were 22 and single, who knows?
In the meantime, I’m going to decline your offer CommutAir. Thanks all the same. Good luck in 2017.
Former Jetstream 31 driver, 12,500 first
year. Hired by a major second year and
31 yrs later, I fly Europe. Worth it? Yep.
Ask the big league baseball player if his time in the minors was worth it. My guess is he says yes.
Like many worthwhile endeavors, you pay dues early, collect dues late.
Nice article.
What is the makeup of that 600,000 pilots in the U.S.? Embry Riddle, Phoenix East, Flight Safety, and other huge academies advertise they are over 90% foreign students, some over 97%, in ads to attract more foreign students. Some academies, like the Lufthansa school in Arizona, are exclusively foreign students. All of those students are legal U.S. residents during their years of training.
Your supply line might be a little unrealistic, it assumes limitless capacity to supply pilots. If pilot pay doubled today, it still wouldn’t attract most gainfully employed pilots back into flying, as it is even more risky than ever with automation coming fast. Older pilots can’t take the risk, and younger pilots see rapidly increasing risk during their career years.
really ? they are sending out post cards ? i knew that would happen…
yep, me too . i have 3000 hours, atp mel mes sel ses, flight dispatcher, ground instructor advanced and instrument, cfi, cfii, mei, 1st class medical etc etc
BUT NO WAY am i flying a dash 8 , living in my car in newark nj and eating ramen noodles
hello ! great lakes and etc who cry pilot shortage! UPS wants to hire a handful of pilots and they get thousands of applications. you need to find out what ups is doing right and what you are doing wrong.
I agree with the general sentiment of the article, but I’d like to add a twist. Within a generation or two, automation is most likely going to solve the pilot shortage. The most you’ll need is a handful of ground-based observers, each monitoring several flights at once, and most likely not paid a great amount. So, if you’re in your 20s and you start your professional pilot career now, you might make it through to retirement without being replaced by a computer, or you might not. Personally, it’s not a gamble I would make.
Great piece, Ben! I did my time in EWR and don’t miss it one bit. The majors are great, but getting there can be brutal.
Thanks Pete. Happy New Year mate.
Ditto to the previous comments. While I don’t agree with the RJ/regional business model, it is a reality for pretty much any civilian pilot wishing to make it to the major airlines. Having just upgraded at one of the Big 4 airlines, those years of living lean were very much worth it.
P.S. I made $18,500 my first year, with no bonus. Still totally worth it.
My grandson put in 8 years with Pinnacle/Endeavor and is now with Delta because of that path to get hired. In fact he just got a captain bid in ATL. Of course at your advanced age you would never get hired on a big airline, so it’s best you not take the Commutair offer. Seriously, I do enjoy your articles, Ben.
So true. Everything but equitable pay. Pay well and there will be no shortage.
Good story, but it is a way into the major airlines, Did you hear
of day care?