RIP: Will 94 UL be DOA?

Kent Misegades | GAfuels, Web Exclusive | January 26, 2010

Here is a thought experiment about the future of avgas.  The conclusion is fairly obvious if you do the numbers: The US consumed somewhere around 135 billion gallons of auto fuel in 2009.  The last annual figures I have are for 2008 at about 138 billion and declining. General aviation consumes less than 300 million gallons of avgas. The last annual figure I have is for 2007 and is declining.

Therefore it appears that avgas represents less than 1/4 of 1% of the gasoline consumed in the US.  It makes you wonder why the refineries even bother, especially when you consider they have to deal with Tetraethyl Lead (TEL) and then distribute the product with special processes so that it doesn’t contaminate the unleaded gasoline infrastructure, which means they certainly don’t distribute it through pipelines, the cheapest transport method.

One other fact that should be kept in mind about avgas:  A number of sources (mainly AOPA) maintain that 30% of the GA fleet has to have 100LL and uses about 70% of the 100LL consumed, while 70% of the GA fleet consumes about 30% of the 100LL — and most of them do not need it — they could be using 91 AKI premium unleaded auto fuel under STCs.  These figures go back to a survey done about 2003.

One should also keep in mind that only about 3% (123 out of 3,658, according to AirNav) of the FBOs in the country sell unleaded auto fuel on an airport and the number is declining. This is a very important statistic affecting the future availability of 94 UL. Ever get the feeling that everything about GA is declining?

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EPA predicts E15 approval in 2010 despite widespread opposition

Kent Misegades | GAfuels | December 10, 2009

As reported by the New York Times, despite widespread opposition and scant results from ongoing testing of vehicles burning E15, the EPA is already predicting it will approve lifting the current limit of ethanol in vehicle fuels from 10% to 15% by the end of 2010.

Admitting that vehicles built before 2001 would need to continue using E10, the EPA suggests that distributors and gas stations would need to offer multiple fuels with differing amounts of ethanol, displaying an astounding naivete as to the difficulty and expense this would entail. Industry groups quoted in the article warn of engine damage and the danger for fire.

While some aircraft engines may operate on E10, no manufacturer recommends the use of the fuel. No aircraft engines are currently approved for E15, and the loss of power that such high levels of ethanol would lead to would likely make flight with E15 unsafe.

The GAfuels Blog is written by three private pilots concerned about the future availability of fuels for piston-engine aircraft. They are:

• Dean Billing (Sisters, Ore.) – an expert on autogas and ethanol
• Kent Misegades (Cary, N.C.) – an aerospace engineer and aviation journalist
• Todd Petersen (Minden, Neb.) – former aerial applicator and owner of more than 150 Mogas STCs for aircraft

For a list of airports that have ethanol-free fuel and those no longer pumping it, compiled by the authors, follow this link.

E15 still not ready for prime-time, EPA says

Kent Misegades | GAfuels | December 9, 2009

In an article appearing recently in the Raleigh News & Observer, the EPA has stated that more testing is needed before E15 can be used in automobiles. This article also comments on the fuel’s use in other vehicles, however does not mention aircraft.  From our perspective, the EPA makes light of hundreds of strong, well-founded arguments against E15 made by major companies during the recent public comment period.

The GAfuels Blog is written by three private pilots concerned about the future availability of fuels for piston-engine aircraft. They are:

• Dean Billing (Sisters, Ore.) – an expert on autogas and ethanol
• Kent Misegades (Cary, N.C.) – an aerospace engineer and aviation journalist
• Todd Petersen (Minden, Neb.) – former aerial applicator and owner of more than 150 Mogas STCs for aircraft

For a list of airports that have ethanol-free fuel and those no longer pumping it, compiled by the authors, follow this link.

Climategate scandal widens

Kent Misegades | GAfuels | December 8, 2009

21st Century science should be good science, but it isn’t.  Climategate scientists prove that money talks. This opinion piece from the Wall Street Journal documents how man-made global-warming theorists have been manipulating data in their efforts to maintain funding of pet projects.  Given that such theories provide a fundamental justification for the pursuit of “renewable” energy such as ethanol, the fallout from this international scandal could — and should — lead to reconsideration of the EISA 2007 mandates for ethanol production, the reason that a supply of lead-free aviation fuel is rapidly disappearing in the U.S.
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Marathon recreational fuel suited for aircraft

Kent Misegades | GAfuels | December 7, 2009

Marathon Oil Co. is marketing a 90 octane unleaded non-ethanol gasoline as a recreational fuel for boats.  We believe this fuel to be perfectly suited for use with 87 octane auto fuel STCs.  In some locations it is one octane point higher, 91 octane.  91 octane is suitable for use with all auto fuel STCs.

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Alcohol in fuels

Kent Misegades | GAfuels | December 6, 2009

The EAA recently published an article in its online “Light Plane World” reviewing the various aspects of operating small aircraft engines when ethanol might be present in Mogas.

Building on past work by your bloggers and others, the article does a good job of providing ample warning of the various problems that can occur when ethanol is found in our fuel. Unfortunately, it does not explain why the supply of ethanol-free fuel is becoming scarce, nor does it suggest what actions might be taken to reverse this trend. Your bloggers have repeatedly called for an exemption to the EISA 2007 ethanol production mandates that would forbid the blending of ethanol in premium unleaded gas, thus preserving a fuel for the millions of gasoline engines in vehicles and machinery that can not burn it.
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SC airport reports continued supply of Mogas

Kent Misegades | GAfuels | December 3, 2009

Thanks to Cal Hoffman of the Barnwell Regional Airport (BNL) in Barnwell, S.C., for informing us that the airport has a supply of 93 octane (AKI), ethanol-free, lead-free Mogas on the field.

He does not expect any disruptions to the supply in the near future, and suggests that the strong demand for ethanol-free fuel from the marine industry on the coast of South Carolina and Georgia is the cause.

At the time of this posting, Mogas at BNL cost only $3.05 compared to a national average of $3.30, and a national average of $4.53 for 100LL.

The GAfuels Blog is written by three private pilots concerned about the future availability of fuels for piston-engine aircraft. They are:

• Dean Billing (Sisters, Ore.) – an expert on autogas and ethanol
• Kent Misegades (Cary, N.C.) – an aerospace engineer and aviation journalist
• Todd Petersen (Minden, Neb.) – former aerial applicator and owner of more than 150 Mogas STCs for aircraft

For a list of airports that have ethanol-free fuel and those no longer pumping it, compiled by the authors, follow this link.

EPA working with ethanol lobby to force E15 fuels

Kent Misegades | GAfuels | December 2, 2009

Your bloggers just came across this letter (download here) from the EPA dated Nov. 30, written to the heads of the ethanol lobby (Gen. Wesley Clark and Jeff Broin of Growth Energy), essentially promising to force E15 on us all next year despite widespread opposition.

Car companies and hundreds of other companies and organizations affected by the use of ethanol have been strong in their opposition to raising the limit on ethanol in our fuels from the current 10% cap. You’ll find a list of these on pp 27-34 from our AirVenture ’09 Forum at http://www.e0pc.com/AV09_Fuels.pdf.

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Support for ethanol in fuels eroding

Kent Misegades | GAfuels | December 1, 2009

Two recent articles in the New York Times chronicle eroding public support for ethanol production mandates and its use in vehicle fuels:

“A Growing Disaster”, by Russell Harding, 11/28/2009

“US Unlikely to use the Ethanol Congress Ordered”, Matthew Wald, 11/26/2009

The GAfuels Blog is written by three private pilots concerned about the future availability of fuels for piston-engine aircraft. They are:

• Dean Billing (Sisters, Ore.) – an expert on autogas and ethanol
• Kent Misegades (Cary, N.C.) – an aerospace engineer and aviation journalist
• Todd Petersen (Minden, Neb.) – former aerial applicator and owner of more than 150 Mogas STCs for aircraft

For a list of airports that have ethanol-free fuel and those no longer pumping it, compiled by the authors, follow this link.

Mogas – going, going, gone in the Pacific Northwest

Kent Misegades | GAfuels | November 23, 2009

Another nail has been driven into the coffin of ethanol free fuel in the Pacific Northwest. Practically all of the gasoline in western Washington and western Oregon comes from four major refineries on the Puget sound north of Seattle.  Since Oregon is already a mandatory E10 state due to a state law, we have been receiving mostly suboctane blending product, called BOB, to make our E10 gasoline for more than a year. All of that product, except a small amount that comes in by ocean-going barge, comes down the Olympic pipeline from those four refineries.

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